The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates months and quarters of U. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the s lasted months. A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.
The product-side estimates fell slightly in Q4, rose slightly in Q1, rose again in Q2, and fell slightly in Q3.
Statement of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee on the Determination of the Dates of Turning Points in the U.S. Economy. The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Procedure: FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS. Members of the Business Cycle Dating Committee. September 20, announcement of June business cycle trough/end of last recession. April How long does the Committee expect the recession to last? The Committee does not forecast. Does the Committee follow the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee in its deliberations? While the CEPR Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee has been conceived to operate in a manner similar to the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, its. Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research. This report is also available as a file. CAMBRIDGE September 20, - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December and the.
The income-side estimates reached their peak in Q3, fell slightly in Q4 and Q1, rose slightly in Q2 to a level below its peak in Q3, and fell again in Q3. Thus, the currently available estimates of quarterly aggregate real domestic production do not speak clearly about the date of a peak in activity. Other series considered by the committee-including real personal income less transfer payments, real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales, industrial production, and employment estimates based on the household survey-all reached peaks between November and June The committee determined that the decline in economic activity in met the standard for a recession, as set forth in the second paragraph of this document.
All evidence other than the ambiguous movements of the quarterly product-side measure of domestic production confirmed that conclusion.
The Quarter of the Peak
Many of these indicators, including monthly data on the largest component of GDP, consumption, have declined sharply in recent months. The committee's primary role is to maintain a monthly chronology of the business cycle. For this purpose, the committee mainly relies on monthly indicators.
It also considers quarterly indicators and maintains a quarterly chronology. In its deliberations, the committee relied on a number of monthly and quarterly economic indicators published by government agencies.
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee Determines that Recession Began in July CAMBRIDGE, April 25 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research reached the judgment today that the peak of U.S. economic activity occurred in July Sep 20, The recession dating committee has called the end of the recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of the start and end dates of . The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of the U.S. business cycle. The chronology comprises alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity. A recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak. During a recession, a significant decline in economic.
The Appendix to this announcement lists these indicators and their sources. The Appendix also describes the calculations required to reproduce the series that the NBER committee examined in its deliberations. The committee identified December as the peak month, after determining that the subsequent decline in economic activity was large enough to qualify as a recession.
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Payroll employment, the number of filled jobs in the economy based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' large survey of employers, reached a peak in December and has declined in every month since then. An alternative measure of employment, measured by the BLS's household survey, reached a peak in Novemberdeclined early inexpanded temporarily in April to a level below its November peak, and has declined in every month since April For a discussion of the difference between payroll and household survey employment measures, see Mary Bowler and Teresa L.
May 01, Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USREC) from Dec to Apr about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA. The NBER's Recession Dating Procedure Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research. January 7, This report is also available as a file. The National Bureau's Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of the U.S. business cycle. Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research. This report is also available as a file. CURRENT RECESSION BEGAN IN JULY. CAMBRIDGE, January 06 - The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met today and identified July as the most recent peak in U.S. economic activity.
The committee uses real personal income less transfer payments from the Bureau of Economic Analysis as a monthly measure of output. The deduction of transfer payments places the data closer to the desired measure, real gross domestic income. To adjust personal income less transfer payments from nominal to real terms that is, to remove the effects of price changesthe committee uses the deflator for gross domestic product.
Centre for Economic Policy Research
Because this deflator is only available quarterly, the committee interpolates the published series to approximate a monthly price index for GDP. The resulting monthly measure of real personal income less transfers is an imperfect measure of monthly real output because of definitional differences between personal income less transfers and gross national income and because we use the interpolated price index.
Our measure of real personal income less transfers peaked in Decemberdisplayed a zig-zag pattern from then until June at levels slightly below the December peak, and has generally declined since June.
Real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales from the Census Department is another monthly indicator of output.
Nber recession dating committee
It is an imperfect measure of the production of goods and services for at least three reasons. First, it covers only goods and not services.
Second, it does not deduct the sales of imported goods. Because the real value of imports declined substantially over the relevant period, the measure understates the growth of output.
Third, the government does not publish a price index corresponding to the coverage of the measure. The committee uses the same interpolated GDP deflator as discussed above.
Real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales reached a well-defined peak in June The last monthly measure of production is the Federal Reserve Board's index of industrial production.
This measure has quite restricted coverage-it includes manufacturing, mining, and utilities but excludes all services and government.
Industrial production peaked in Januaryfell through Mayrose slightly in June and July, and then fell substantially from July to September. It rose somewhat in October with the resumption of oil production disturbed by hurricanes in the previous month.
The October value of the industrial production index remained a substantial 4. The committee noted that the behavior of the quarterly estimates of aggregate production was not inconsistent with a peak in late The income-side estimate of output reached its peak in the third quarter of The product-side estimate reached a temporary peak in the same quarter, but rose to a higher level in the second quarter of The committee determined that the peak quarter of economic activity was the fourth quarter of When the monthly peak occurs in the last month of a quarter, the NBER's long-standing procedures dates the quarterly peak either in the quarter containing the monthly peak or in the subsequent quarter.
Thus, the committee could have dated the quarterly peak in Q1 if it had determined that economic activity was higher in that quarter than in Q4.
This report is also available as a file. The peak marks the onset of a recession in the business cycle chronology maintained by the Bureau. In the opinion of the committee, there is no doubt that the U.
All the indicators traditionally considered are well below their peaks. Industrial production in November was Employees on nonagricultural payrolls were 91, in November, as compared to 92, in September. The unemployment rate was 8.
The committee considered a wide variety of evidence in determining that the peak occurred in July. Although different indicators of economic activity peaked at different times during the year, as is typically the case at business cycle turning points, the configuration of the downturn among the main series clearly suggested a July peak. Of the major indicators, both industrial production and unemployment signalled peaks in July; manufacturing and trade sales adjusted for inflation and real GNP peaked somewhat earlier; nonfarm employment and real personal income excluding transfer payments peaked later.
The committee also reviewed its earlier decision that a peak of economic activity occurred in January and a trough in July and reaffirmed that decision. Although not all economic indicators had regained their peaks by the summer ofthe committee agreed that the resurgence of economic activity in the previous year clearly constituted a business cycle recovery.